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The "China factor" remains a commodity stabilizer.

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The "China factor" remains a commodity stabilizer.

Release date:2017-12-27 Author: Click:

Looking back at the rise and fall of commodity markets since the beginning of the 21st century, China is undoubtedly a focal point. From 2002 to 2007, China and other emerging economies in the industrialization and urbanization, driven by sharply rising demand for commodities, and superposition of Europe and the United States and other countries monetary easing and implement policy of real estate asset bubbles, prices rose sharply, which contributed to the commodity bull market.


Even in Europe and the United States economy in 2007-2008 global financial crisis, China's economy is still to maintain high growth, demand for commodities is still huge, so as to support the global commodity prices.


Due to its impact on the global commodities in deepening, and buck in the world is not yet out of the financial crisis to promote commodity rises, people will be the commodity market of the kinetic energy is called the "China factor". Prominent investment Banks such as Goldman sachs and Morgan Stanley have emphasised the "Chinese factor" and pointed to the "Chinese factor" as crucial to the commodity's decade-long gold boom.


The current commodities have said goodbye to the golden decade, the crude oil, copper and other commodities that used to be the leading commodities of commodities have more than halved, leading industrial products and agricultural products into the winter.


In analysts view, after the 2008 financial crisis, on the one hand, the European and American developed country to leverage and asset bubbles, on the other hand in 2011 after the economic structural problems emerging economies, especially China's economy into the shifting period, "China factor" become a commodity return value and the direct factors to bubble.


How do you view the current and future "China factors" as commodities slide back into decline?


First, it should be recognised that China's economy has not been that large in the past few years, and it is relatively easy to maintain growth or demand for commodities. But now, China's economy has risen to the world, under such a huge volume, economic growth is very difficult to achieve ever, demand for commodities want to maintain the original high-speed growth is more difficult.


However, the slowdown does not mean that the absolute amount is reduced, and China's demand for commodities is still growing. China's economic restructuring has for many years, the future Chinese demand is expected to remain at a relatively stable level, impact on commodities markets have also been reflected in the price, so at present in terms of the commodity market, China's economic transformation factors should be weakened. With "China factor" into the normalization, the goods are below cost area, its bearish on goods also can appear the size of diminishing marginal effects in the future is more of a commodity's own contradiction between supply and demand factors and the dollar. A return to the bull market may require new economies to support a new round of rapid economic growth.


Second, China's economic growth has gradually returned to its normal range from the "overheating" phase. Specific view, at present China's economic transformation to reduce demand for commodities, mainly small and medium-sized enterprises and part behind the excess capacity, different divisions, varieties, agriculture will be relatively small, industrial products, such as base metals more. It is more conducive to the internal balance of the economy from the growth of the pursuit of quantity to the requirement of qualitative improvement.


The "China factor" has always been important, but China's lack of pricing power in international commodity trading has made it difficult to truly dominate the world's commodity markets. In the new thinking of China's economic development "seek improvement in stability", the gold content of "China factor" is expected to gradually increase.


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